Iran-led Axis of Resistance in the Aftermath of Syria’s Upheaval

Impact of Syria’s Collapse on Iran’s Axis of Resistance: Strategic Setbacks and Shifting Alliances Across the Middle East

For decades, Iran has been steadily constructing an “axis of resistance” composed of allied factions to challenge the influence of Israel and the United States across the Middle East. This coalition, which spans Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and includes Palestinian groups, has been a cornerstone of Iran’s regional strategy. However, the recent upheaval in Syria has tested the resilience of this alliance, as the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime dealt a significant blow to Iran’s strategic position in the region.

Iran’s Response to the Collapse of Assad’s Regime

The loss of Syria as a key ally has led many to speculate that the axis of resistance is on the brink of collapse. Yet, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dismissed these claims as “ignorant” and emphasized that the axis is not simply a network of physical connections that can be dismantled by military strikes. Instead, he argued, the axis is a belief system that grows stronger under pressure, with a deep-rooted commitment to expelling the United States from the region. This vision remains a central goal for Tehran, particularly in Iraq, where Iran seeks to avenge the 2020 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, a key architect of the axis.

The Strategic Importance of Hezbollah

One of the major casualties of the changing dynamics in the region is Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese militia and political force that has long been a critical ally. Hezbollah’s military capabilities, developed with Iranian support since the 1980s, have allowed it to become a formidable force, often more powerful than Lebanon’s national army. Despite facing significant losses in recent years, including the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah and several top commanders, Tehran insists that Hezbollah remains resilient. Khamenei has assured that the resistance forces, including those in Lebanon and Palestine, will ultimately lead to Israel’s defeat.

However, the severing of Iran’s land link to Hezbollah through Syria is a major setback. Ali Akbar Dareini, a Tehran-based researcher, notes that the collapse of Assad’s government has made it more difficult for Iran to maintain its supply lines to Hezbollah. This disruption could embolden Israel to intensify its attacks on Hezbollah, which has already been targeted by Israeli airstrikes.

Israel’s Growing Influence and Regional Impact

The fall of Assad has allowed Israel to expand its presence in Syria, occupying strategic areas in the south and launching numerous airstrikes across the country. In response, Khamenei has warned that Israel’s attempts to encircle Hezbollah and undermine its resistance will ultimately backfire, with Israel itself facing defeat. Despite this, Iran’s influence in Syria is undeniably weakened, and the new Syrian leadership, under Ahmed al-Sharaa, has expressed reluctance to engage in further hostilities with Israel, reflecting Syria’s war-weariness.

Further Strikes and Attacks on Axis Members

Israel’s growing confidence is evident in its recent actions in Yemen, where it has targeted the Houthis, another key member of the resistance axis. In a series of airstrikes, Israel has hit critical infrastructure in Yemen, including oil facilities and power stations, while also reportedly planning targeted assassinations of Houthi leaders. The Houthis, in turn, have launched ballistic missile attacks on Israel, including one that landed in Tel Aviv, injuring several people. These exchanges underscore the ongoing volatility in the region, with the Houthis continuing to challenge Israel’s presence despite being heavily targeted.

In Iraq, the United States has pressured the Iraqi government to dismantle Iran-aligned militia groups, threatening military action if Baghdad does not comply. Many of these groups are now integrated into Iraq’s official security forces, complicating the US’s efforts to curb Iran’s influence in the country.

The Evolution of the Axis: Resistance Without an Axis

The collapse of Assad’s regime has left the axis of resistance in a state of flux. Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University, argues that the axis has lost its cohesion, particularly in the Levant, and will no longer play the same strategic role it once did. While the axis remains active in Iraq and Yemen, its ability to function as a unified network of states and militias has been significantly diminished.

Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, identifies three main pillars that have sustained the axis: geographical connectivity, coordination between members, and ideological unity. With the collapse of Assad’s regime, the first two pillars have been severely damaged. However, the ideological foundation of resistance—rooted in anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment—remains intact, potentially allowing Iran to continue its efforts to fortify its influence in Iraq and Yemen.

This evolving situation could be described as “resistance without an axis,” with Iran focusing on maintaining its forward defense lines in Iraq and Yemen while the broader network operates at a diminished capacity. The axis may no longer function as a coherent geopolitical entity, but its ideological drive persists, with Iran continuing to push for regional dominance through its remaining alliances.

A Changing Landscape

The Iran-led axis of resistance is at a crossroads. While the fall of Assad’s regime and the shifting dynamics in the region have undoubtedly weakened Iran’s position, the ideological commitment to resistance against US and Israeli influence remains a potent force. Whether the axis can adapt to these new realities and continue to challenge the balance of power in the Middle East will depend on how effectively Iran can navigate the complex political and military landscape that has emerged in the wake of Syria’s upheaval.