Friedrich Merz’s Stunning Defeat in Germany’s Chancellor Vote Sparks Chaos

Historic Blow for Friedrich Merz in Germany

On May 6, 2025, Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader and presumed chancellor-designate, faced an unprecedented setback in Germany’s political history. In a shocking parliamentary vote, Merz failed to secure the necessary majority to become Germany’s next chancellor, falling six votes short of the required 316 in the Bundestag. This historic defeat—the first time a chancellor candidate has failed the first ballot in post-war Germany has plunged Europe’s largest economy into renewed political uncertainty. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) seized the moment, demanding snap elections, while Germany’s financial markets wavered under the weight of the crisis.

This article explores the implications of Friedrich Merz’s parliamentary loss, the factors behind the vote’s failure, and the economic and political fallout for Germany and Europe. With Merz’s leadership under scrutiny and the AfD’s influence growing, Germany faces a critical juncture. Stay informed with the latest updates on Merz, Germany, and the unfolding political drama.

May 6 Germany’s 2025 Election and Coalition Talks

Friedrich Merz’s journey to the chancellorship began with Germany’s snap federal election on February 23, 2025, triggered by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition in November 2024. Merz, leading the CDU and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured 28.5% of the vote, a modest victory that marked the CDU’s second-worst post-war result. The AfD, led by Alice Weidel, achieved a historic second place with 20.8%, capitalizing on voter frustration over immigration and economic woes. Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) plummeted to 16.4%, their worst result since World War II, while the Greens polled at 11.6%. Voter turnout hit 82.5%, the highest since reunification, reflecting widespread public concern.

The fragmented election results forced Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, to navigate complex coalition talks. After six weeks of negotiations, Merz announced a “grand coalition” with the SPD on April 9, 2025, uniting Germany’s two establishment parties to exclude the AfD from power. The coalition, projected to hold 328 of the Bundestag’s 630 seats, was formalized with a signing ceremony on April 28, 2025, attended by Merz, SPD co-leaders Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken, and CSU leader Markus Söder. Merz hailed the agreement as a “strong plan” to restore Germany’s stability, promising reforms and European leadership.

Why Friedrich Merz Fell Short?

The parliamentary vote on May 6, 2025, was expected to confirm Friedrich Merz as Germany’s 10th post-war chancellor, replacing Olaf Scholz. Conducted via secret ballot in the restored Reichstag, the vote required an absolute majority of 316 votes. Merz, backed by the CDU/CSU and SPD, was anticipated to sail through. Instead, he secured only 310 votes, a “complete catastrophe” that stunned observers and marked a historic first. Three lawmakers abstained, one ballot was invalid, and nine MPs were absent, complicating the tally.

The secret ballot obscures the source of Merz’s shortfall, but analysts point to potential dissent within the CDU or SPD. Some CDU lawmakers may have balked at Merz’s rightward shift, including his controversial migration policies, while SPD members might have resisted aligning with their traditional rivals. SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil, slated to become Merz’s vice-chancellor, insisted he had “not the slightest indication” of SPD disloyalty, but the result suggests otherwise. The Bundestag now has 14 days to elect a chancellor, with a second vote expected soon, potentially as early as this week.

AfD’s Response, Alice Weidel Demands Snap Elections

The AfD, Germany’s far-right party, pounced on Friedrich Merz’s defeat, with co-leader Alice Weidel calling it a “good day for Germany.” Weidel demanded Merz step aside and urged new elections, arguing the coalition’s failure proves its lack of legitimacy. “Merz is the first chancellor candidate in the history of the Federal Republic to fail in the first round,” the AfD posted on X, amplifying the embarrassment. The party’s strong showing in February, particularly in eastern Germany, and its classification as a “right-wing extremist effort” by Germany’s intelligence agency last week, underscore its growing influence despite mainstream parties’ refusal to cooperate.

The AfD’s rise has been fueled by public discontent over immigration, exacerbated by a January 2025 stabbing attack in Aschaffenburg by a rejected Afghan asylum seeker, which killed two people. Merz’s decision to pass a non-binding migration resolution with AfD support in January 2025, breaking a post-war taboo, sparked protests and a rare rebuke from former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who called it “wrong.” This move may have alienated moderate lawmakers and voters, contributing to Merz’s parliamentary loss.

Economic Impact

Friedrich Merz’s defeat sent shockwaves through Germany’s financial markets, with the DAX index dropping 1.8% on May 6, 2025, before recovering slightly to close 1.1% lower. Germany’s economy, already projected to contract for a third consecutive year in 2025, faces heightened uncertainty. High energy prices, declining industrial output, and trade tensions with the U.S. under President Donald Trump have strained businesses and households. Investors had pinned hopes on Merz’s pro-business Agenda 2030, which promises tax cuts and deregulation to achieve 2% GDP growth, but its €90 billion annual cost has raised concerns.

Germany’s Commerzbank warned that the vote “dampens hopes for sweeping economic reforms,” highlighting the coalition’s narrow majority. Economist Holger Schmieding called the outcome a “bad surprise,” noting that Merz’s weakened position could hinder bold policy changes. Carsten Brzeski of ING added, “A coalition with such a slim majority risks more stagnation unless all parties seize this last chance to prevent the AfD from gaining further ground.” The AfD and far-left Die Linke, which polled 8.7% in February, hold a “blocking minority” in parliament, threatening legislative gridlock.

Friedrich Merz’s Leadership

Friedrich Merz, a 69-year-old corporate lawyer, has positioned himself as a decisive leader to revive Germany’s fortunes. Unlike Angela Merkel, whose centrist policies defined Germany for 16 years, Merz has steered the CDU rightward, emphasizing stricter migration controls and free-market reforms. His background as former chairman of BlackRock Germany and a World Economic Forum trustee has drawn scrutiny, with some X posts labeling him a “globalist pick.” However, Merz’s brash style and controversial decisions have eroded his popularity, with a ZDF poll showing only 38% of Germans supporting him as chancellor and 56% deeming him unfit.

Merz’s migration gambit in January 2025, aligning with the AfD on a hardline resolution, fractured the CDU and sparked nationwide protests. Merkel’s public criticism and polls showing a dip in CDU support to 28% underscored the backlash. Ulf Buermeyer, host of the State of the Nation podcast, expressed distrust, saying, “My personal confidence that Merz won’t work with the AfD if it’s his only path to power is gone.” Yet, Merz has vowed to exclude the AfD from government, a pledge echoed by coalition partners.

Supporters like Ulrich Hinz, a 74-year-old retiree, praise Merz’s pro-European stance, hoping he’ll strengthen ties with France and Poland. Critics like Ute Wolters, a 64-year-old architect, worry about his reliability, fearing he might renege on his anti-AfD stance. Merz’s earlier gaffes, such as a 2023 claim that refugees overburdened Germany’s healthcare system, have fueled perceptions of divisiveness.

Path Ahead for Merz, Germany, and the Coalition

The Bundestag has until May 20, 2025, to elect a chancellor. A second vote, expected this week, will test Merz’s ability to rally the six holdout lawmakers. If he fails again, a third round could see him elected by a simple majority, but this would further erode his legitimacy. CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann suggested alternative candidates remain an option, though Merz is likely to prevail. Johann Wadepuhl, the designated foreign minister, expressed confidence, calling the setback an “annoying process” inherent to democracy.

Merz’s immediate task is to unify the CDU-SPD coalition. The SPD, stung by its electoral losses, may demand concessions, while CDU hardliners could push for tougher migration policies to counter the AfD. Coalition talks, already described as “complex and lengthy,” risk delaying Germany’s 2026 budget, with the constitutional “debt brake” limiting fiscal flexibility. Merz has signaled openness to reforming the debt brake, but fiscal conservatives resist.

Internationally, Merz’s defeat weakens Germany’s role as Europe’s anchor. With Trump’s administration questioning NATO’s future, Merz has called for European “independence,” proposing a defense union with France and the UK. His planned trips to Paris and Warsaw, now delayed, aimed to reinforce these ties. On X, Merz’s hawkish stance on Russia and support for Ukraine have drawn praise, with one user noting his unequivocal backing of Kyiv.